Investigación del impacto del crecimiento económico, el consumo energético y la actividad industrial en las emisiones de carbono en Sudáfrica mediante el análisis tiempofrecuencia basado en ondículas

Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo

doi:10.19137/perspectivas-2026-v16n1a04

Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo Walter Sisulu University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19137/perspectivas-2026-v16n1a04

Palavras-chave:

emissões de dióxido de carbono, crescimento económico, consumo de energia, produção industrial, coerência wavelet, África do Sul

Resumo

Este artigo investiga a dinâmica interativa das emissões de dióxido de carbono (CO₂), desenvolvimento económico, uso de energia e produção industrial na África do Sul entre 1990 e 2022. Ao empregar uma abordagem híbrida de testes de coerência wavelet e modelagem Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), o artigo captura elasticidades de longo prazo, bem como associações localizadas de tempo-frequência entre as variáveis. As conclusões confirmam que o desenvolvimento económico, o uso de energia e a produção industrial são determinantes significativos das emissões de CO₂ e destacam os desafios ambientais do caminho de desenvolvimento da África do Sul. As respostas políticas destacam a necessidade imperativa de estratégias integradas de eficiência energética, implantação de energias renováveis e ecologização da indústria para o desenvolvimento sustentável. O artigo contribui com novas descobertas para a literatura, com interpretações matizadas das propriedades temporais e espectrais da dinâmica das emissões, e as suas conclusões são úteis para informar os decisores políticos sobre o controlo das emissões de carbono para as economias emergentes.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Referências

Adewole, A. O., & Awodumi, O. B. (2020). Revisiting the energy-growth nexus in South Africa: Evidence from nonlinear ARDL model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(33), 41820–41834.

Adebayo, T. S., Kirikkaleli, D., Adeshola, I., Oluwajana, D., Akinsola, G. D., & Osemeahon, O. S. (2021). Coal consumption and environmental sustainability in South Africa: The role of financial development and globalization. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10(3), 527–536.

Aguiar-Conraria, L., & Soares, M. J. (2014). The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375.

Al-Mulali, U., Fereidouni, H. G., & Lee, J. Y. (2016). The effect of energy consumption and income on CO₂ emissions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Energy Economics, 57, 52–60.

Al-Mulali, U., & Ozturk, I. (2020). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of energy consumption and globalization in OECD countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(9), 10921–10936.

Assaf, A. G., Al-Najjar, B., & Ozturk, I. (2023). Energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental degradation: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis. Energy Economics, 117, 106517.

Bekun, F. V., Alola, A. A., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2021). Toward a sustainable environment: Nexus between economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions in South Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(3), 3127–3135.

Bekun, F. V., & Alola, A. A. (2022). Energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in South Africa: An application of the Fourier ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(15), 22865–22877.

Bekun, F. V., Emir, F., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2020). Towards a sustainable environment: Nexus between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in South Africa. Energy Reports, 6, 436–443.

Bodasing, N., Janse van Rensburg, M., & Ojah, K. (2021). South Africa’s energy consumption, CO₂ emissions and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis. Energy Policy, 149, 112035.

Department of Energy (DOE). (2023). South Africa Integrated Resource Plan 2023. Government of South Africa. https://www.energy.gov.za/IRP

Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA). (2021). South Africa’s updated nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement. Pretoria, South Africa.

Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: A survey. Ecological Economics, 49(4), 431–455.

Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2022). Global carbon budget 2022. Earth System Science Data, 14(4), 1917–2005.

Geels, F. W., Sovacool, B. K., Schwanen, T., & Sorrell, S. (2016). The socio-technical dynamics of low-carbon transitions. Energy Research & Social Science, 22, 1–5.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). South Africa Energy Profile. https://www.iea.org/reports/south-africa-2023

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2022). Energy transition in South Africa: Renewable energy and energy efficiency. Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Koksal, M., & Öztürk, İ. (2020). The relationship between industrialization and environmental degradation: Evidence from Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(8), 8157–8168.

Markard, J., Raven, R., & Truffer, B. (2020). Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects. Research Policy, 45(9), 1825–1837.

Nkosi, S., & Zondi, S. (2020). Regional disparities in carbon emissions in South Africa: A spatial analysis. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55, 102046.

Newell, P., & Mulvaney, D. (2013). The political economy of the ‘just transition’. The Geographical Journal, 179(2), 132–140.

Ojeaga, P. I., Iyoha, F. O., & Okonkwo, S. A. (2023). Economic growth, energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions in South Africa: Evidence from wavelet analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(2), 23456–23468.

Oladunni, O. S., Olanrewaju, A. A., & Olanrewaju, A. A. (2020). Financial development, real growth, and urbanization and CO₂ emissions: Evidence from wavelet coherence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(22), 27807–27820.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.

Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371–413). Cambridge University Press.

Raihan, S., & Tuspekova, Z. (2022). The influence of economic growth, fossil and renewable energy consumption, and globalization on CO₂ emissions in South Africa: Evidence from ARDL and wavelet coherence techniques. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(12), 17385–17399.

Sadorsky, P. (2019). Energy consumption and environmental degradation: The role of industrialization and economic growth. Energy Economics, 51, 679–686.

Sadorsky, P. (2020). Energy consumption and environmental degradation: The role of industrialization and economic growth. Energy Economics, 51, 679–686.

Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., & Islam, F. (2019). The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in South Africa: New evidence from wavelet analysis. Energy Reports, 5, 1024–1034.

Shahbaz, M., Tan, D., & Shahbaz, M. (2020). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions: The role of financial development and globalization. Science of The Total Environment, 712, 136315.

Shahzad, S. J. H., Tan, D., & Shahbaz, M. (2020). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions in Pakistan: The role of financial development and globalization. Science of The Total Environment, 712, 136315.

Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.

Stavins, R. N. (2020). The future of US carbon-price policy. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 9(1), 1–13.

Torrence, C., & Compo, G. P. (1998). A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(1), 61–78.

Torrence, C., & Webster, P. J. (1999). Interdecadal changes in the ENSO–monsoon system. Journal of Climate, 12(8), 2679–2690.

Udeagha, M. C., & Ngepah, N. (2022). The asymmetric effect of technological innovation on CO₂ emissions in South Africa: New evidence from the QARDL approach. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 985719.

World Bank. (2023). South Africa systematic country diagnostic. Washington, DC. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099901205042329899/icsd0south0afric0systematic0country0diagnostic

World Bank. (2023). World development indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

Zhou, D., Cai, Y., & Xie, L. (2022). Multiscale relationships between CO₂ emissions and economic growth: Insights from wavelet coherence analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(12), 17385–17399.